How much higher is gas going to go

[Paper Hearts]

False.  Kuwaiti's yes.  Iraqis and Iranians no.  Its a matter of refineries.  All that oil and Iran only has 5 operating refineries.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In Europe, people's incomes are about 25% higher in respect to the price of fuel. If we were paying 2.25/g instead of 3/g no one would be complaining. We also consume a ridiculous amount...vehicles in europe get far better mpg. It's really a couple of problems we have that translate into people being pissed off at gas stations...but really it's our governement...the one we've elected.

[Guest Game of Chance]

We're headed for a recession, as in nationwide (not just in detroit)...

[Guest Game of Chance]

I heard that by the end of the summer, gas will up to 4 dollars a gallon. even people with well paying jobs will be hurting just because of the gas prices! the amount of money that someone makes working does have an impact on the economy, how will these things be purchased if no one has the money to buy them? The cost of living is on the rise but no one is getting paid to be able to live comfortable. the economy is for shame!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Time for the Fed to start thinking about cutting.

[Blackmail]

No...Irai's do pay between 5 and 7 cents per gallon. I'll look for the link.

Also.....we are not heading for a recession. Even with yesterday's news about a slow down in the GDP we are not going to have 2 quarters of GDP loss. We havn't in a few years.

[Blackmail]

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/auto/20040607a2.asp

Iraq gas price $0.05

Kuwait gas price $0.68

Also note, the U.S. is nowhere near the top...so quit your complaining people!

[torn asunder]

Also note, the U.S. is nowhere near the top...so quit your complaining people!

:whistling

[Guest Game of Chance]

No...Irai's do pay between 5 and 7 cents per gallon.  I'll look for the link.

Also.....we are not heading for a recession.  Even with yesterday's news about a slow down in the GDP we are not going to have 2 quarters of GDP loss.    We havn't in a few years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We are definitely headed for a recession. Fed Funds have traded through the curve with the ten year treasury at 5.04% and funds at 5.25%. I think they'll raise one last time on the 8th. An inverted yield curve has preceded a recession 8 out of the last 9 times.

The housing market is moderating, with home sales slowing down. Most of the cash in this country has come from 2nd mortgages. Energy prices are way up. Credit card minimum payments are doubling in October. All of these factors point to a slowdown in consumer spending...hence recession

We'll see the Fed start cutting by 1st quarter '07.

[Guest Game of Chance]

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/auto/20040607a2.asp

Iraq gas price $0.05

Kuwait gas price $0.68

Also note, the U.S. is nowhere near the top...so quit your complaining people!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I read that same article, but I stand corrected. I assumed Iraqi gasoline was still on the expensive side. I know Iran's gas prices were shocking to me.

The complaing part is funny coming from someone who (last I heard) doesn't have a car.

Also, I'm certainly not complaning. In fact, a recession is good for bonds. And bond brokers

[Blackmail]

We are definitely headed for a recession.  Fed Funds have traded through the curve with the ten year treasury at 5.04% and funds at 5.25%.  I think they'll raise one last time on the 8th.  An inverted yield curve has preceded a recession 8 out of the last 9 times. 

The housing market is moderating, with home sales slowing down.  Most of the cash in this country has come from 2nd mortgages.  Energy prices are way up.  Credit card minimum payments are doubling in October.  All of these factors point to a slowdown in consumer spending...hence recession

We'll see the Fed start cutting by 1st quarter '07.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't know if I have time to get into this right now. I don't buy into the housing market collapse (slowdown is a more appropriate term). Supposedly according to the WSJ and Bloomberg, the feds won't raise rates until the economy grows a little faster - later in the year.

I agree with all your points about debt and the inverted yield curve, but I still think a) the economy will grow b) unemployment will be stable and c) inflation will lower especially when the fed raises rates.

You also have to factor in a few things:

minimum wage raise/repeal of estate tax just passed congress. It will be tought to pass the senate but in my opinion, both will be good for the economy.

But this is all conjecture, you could be right. I just hope you're not.

[Guest Game of Chance]

Just some food for thought:

http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedetail.as...uly&YearID=2006

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200..._curve_inv.html

[Blackmail]

Just some food for thought:

http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedetail.as...uly&YearID=2006

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well that was a little too complicated for me. I havn't been in an econ class in a decade.

But it did say 1) labor costs in India and China are affecting the global labor market, hurting the U.S. economy.

When is Bush (or anyone) going to do something? When I say do something, I mean pull out of the WTO, CAFTA and NAFTA because nothing short of that will stop offshoring/outsourcing. Remember when Bush put a tariff on imported steel? He was right to do that even though it pissed off the International community.

Ok I am on a rant now, but I am no longer a free market guy because of places like India and China.

Did I completely change the subject?

[Guest Game of Chance]

Well that was a little too complicated for me.  I havn't been in an econ class in a decade.   

But it did say 1) labor costs in India and China are affecting the global labor market, hurting the U.S. economy.

When is Bush (or anyone) going to do something?  When I say do something, I mean pull out of the WTO, CAFTA and NAFTA because nothing short of that will stop offshoring/outsourcing.    Remember when Bush put a tariff on imported steel?  He was right to do that even though it pissed off the International community.     

Ok I am on a rant now, but I am no longer a free market guy because of places like India and China.

Did I completely change the subject?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A little. Point is, GDP is a lagging indicator. And signs are in fact pointing towards a slowdown.

[Blackmail]

I just went to Google and put it "recession" in the news category and there were all sorts of interesting articles giving varying opinions on whether a recession looms. It does seem the next year the economy will be fragile and energy prices are one of the main reasons, with Iran in the news, it could really hurt things if energy prices rise.

The US will almost have to have a Democrat as President in 2008 to raise taxes and a Republican congress (hopefully) to cut the deficit (ala the 1990's).

[Guest Game of Chance]

From what I can tell, the majority of the street is looking at a bullish bond market in '07.

The average time (in the last 25 years) from last hike to first cut in Fed Funds in 3.64 months!

That would put us at right around the December meeting. We'll see.